Microsoft's WM9 strategy

The big news last week is that Microsoft has submitted WM9 codec specification to SMPTE for consideration as a standard.  It's all over the press, including my own article on StreamingMedia.com, Microsoft Opens Windows Media 9 Codec to SMPTE.  Stefanie Olsen also writes a great and informative piece on the topic at ZDnet. 

The surprising addition to the news and perspective came via Good Morning Silicon Valley yesterday:


What's interesting here is the way it suggests that Microsoft's submission to SMPTE is not a big change in strategy, but may be what was planned all along.  First, develop technology that offers something of value to the motion picture and broadcast industries; then seed the marketplace with a bit of it here and there (the T2 DVD, Sigma chip designs).  Then, when the market value is demonstrated and there's some product on the shelves, submit it as a standard to "grease the wheels" of further adoption. 

In the article, Tod DeBie notes that WM9 can get HDTV DVDs and other media into the market sooner and better than standards-body driven alternatives, which are still tied up in process.  If WM9 does it faster and better, and MS has opened the technology to SMPTE, then industry adoption just might take off. 

Finally, Tod says this:


I'm not certain that Microsoft dominance over its markets is ever particularly good for the consumer in the long run.  For that matter, neither is anyone's total dominance over any market.  WM9 is great technology, but codec technology is a very fickle thing. Competing technologies leapfrog each other regularly, with the "best" codec only remaining "best" for a short while before having its title taken away by the competition. I only hope that the decisions and deals made in the next few months by the consumer electronics and broadcast industries are based on solid long-term business strategy. Whatever they choose, they (and we) will have to live with for a very long time.